Meeting elections 2023: How BJP turned Congress’ playbook in opposition to it
Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, BJP State president V.D. Sharma, and Union Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia rejoice the BJP’s victory within the Meeting election in Bhopal on December 3.
| Photograph Credit score: Sanjeev Gupta/ANI
On the face of it, the Congress can console itself that it broke new floor and received Telangana and that the 5 Meeting contests garnered it extra votes total than it did for the BJP. The Congress received 9.5 lakh extra votes in its whole of 4,90,77,907 votes as in opposition to the 4,81,33,463 received by the BJP. However the Congress received one State that has 17 Lok Sabha seats whereas the BJP received three States that, between them, have 65 Lok Sabha seats.
Though Meeting seats don’t robotically translate into Lok Sabha seats, they do assist keep management over authorities and the paperwork. For the reason that trick of electoral politics is to finest the closest rival even when they’ve a wholesome vote share, for the BJP it is a excellent consequence that showcases its mastery over the first-past-the-post system within the Hindi heartland.
Additionally Learn | BJP secures dominant 3-2 victory in Meeting elections, amplifies Congress’ 2024 challenges
Within the case of the Congress, the lack of three States (in two of which it misplaced sitting governments) is all of the extra galling because the social gathering had really created a template that would have lifted the marketing campaign and probably given it that much-needed edge. The irony is that its very personal State satraps (all defeated now) rejected the blueprint, which was later tweaked and owned by at least the Prime Minister.
Assure card of guarantees
The backstory begins with the Karnataka election in Could 2023. The Congress received an efficient design from working professionals who had joined the social gathering such because the election strategist Sunil Kanugolu and former IAS officer Sasikanth Senthil, who headed its election conflict room. Within the then BJP-ruled State, amongst different campaigns, additionally they pushed the concept of a assure card of guarantees that staff would take to voters’ houses.
This was not a pamphlet or commercial however a bodily card with express guarantees written on it. The cardboard had a counterfoil on which the employee would write the identify and deal with of the family that they had visited. In different phrases, individuals have been left with a doc they may hope to imagine in, like a promissory notice. Additionally, within the means of visiting houses, the Congress construction was additionally being constructed and organically linked to the voters.
It was a superb concept that labored in Karnataka. The Congress received the election, and its authorities subsequently got here good on the guarantees. That election was seen as a sport changer that all of a sudden modified expectations and impressed influential regional forces to push for a joint alliance with the Congress for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. That alliance was named INDIA and it at present appears to be imploding, though there are hopes that self-interest may nonetheless maintain the events collectively.
In the meantime, the BJP had learnt its classes. For these Meeting elections, its thrust was not on Hindutva or nationwide points however on welfare schemes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had as soon as dismissed welfare schemes as revadis (a derogatory time period for freebies), focussed on them in the middle of these campaigns. He now speaks of “Modi ki Assure”, and that is little question a pitch that may lengthen to the nationwide election.
Even in his victory speech on the BJP nationwide headquarters delivered on December 3, Modi spoke in regards to the destruction of those that search to return between him and the welfare insurance policies he has lined up for the individuals. It have to be famous that he prolonged the Centre’s free ration scheme for 5 extra years on November 6, the day earlier than the primary part of polling in among the States. All that is fastidiously calibrated. However we should acknowledge that as the unique Congress promissory card did, the concept of Modi ki Assure suggests supply on particular schemes.
Even when the BJP was studying from the Congress and tweaking the teachings for its personal positioning, Kamal Nath, the Congress’ chief ministerial face for Madhya Pradesh, and Ashok Gehlot, the Chief Minister of Rajasthan, had no time for the strategic recommendation of the All India Congress Committee-backed crew. In Rajasthan, as an example, this author found that the Congress ki Assure had develop into nothing greater than a pamphlet circulated on WhatsApp teams. Gehlot had mooted some glorious welfare schemes, and a post-election evaluation exhibits restricted anti-incumbency in opposition to him personally. But he refused to vary MLAs as suggested by the AICC and didn’t tie up with a celebration that represented tribal pursuits. Each these selections value him dearly. Three Bharat Adivasi Get together MLAs received with comfy majorities at the same time as most incumbent Ministers and MLAs, whom Gehlot had been suggested to vary, misplaced.
BJP’s give attention to tribal welfare
Worse was the Congress’ efficiency in Chhattisgarh, the place it seems to have settled on a mixture of cronyism, anticipating OBCs to return by, making an attempt to repeat the BJP on Hindutva, and imagining that tribal individuals, who make up 32 per cent of the inhabitants, would vote for them as a result of they didn’t see the BJP as a substitute. The Congress was proven the door because the BJP went from door to door with guarantees focussed on tribal welfare, now pitched as Modi ki Assure. The BJP/RSS staff additionally reached out on to ladies: they received as many as 53 lakh kinds crammed for the Mahtari Vandan Yojana, a scheme that transfers money to ladies.
One can’t accuse Gehlot of not searching for to empower or profit the weaker sections of Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, nevertheless, one will get the impression that the Congress was searching for energy for the sake of workplace. How does one reconcile the high-sounding discuss of empowerment by the nationwide Congress management when Kamal Nath represents nothing greater than the previous crony tradition of the social gathering? The defeat in Madhya Pradesh is of epic proportions, with the BJP having an 8 per cent lead in vote share.
Additionally Learn | BJP’s Rajasthan election technique: A micro-management mannequin rooted in Hindutva
Kamal Nath is just not a mass chief despite the fact that he could have received his personal seat a number of instances. He additionally expended a lot power protecting others out of his turf. If prior to now Nath has been accused of appearing in ways in which pushed Jyotiraditya Scindia out of the Congress and into the BJP, on this election he was decided to don’t have anything to do with constituents of the INDIA grouping who sought partnerships within the State.
Would the end result have been totally different if the competition in a State dominated by the BJP for practically 20 years had been fronted by a panel of leaders from the INDIA bloc? We are going to by no means know now. Not solely has the Congress misplaced face, the alliance companions are additionally understandably offended with the social gathering that suspended all political exercise for months to give attention to the Meeting elections. One can solely conclude that the outcomes would have been very totally different had the campaigning been dealt with otherwise.
If the three north Indian States confirmed a mannequin for defeat, there was a longtime template for victory too. In Telangana, the Congress wrested energy from a rooted State social gathering. Knowledge from the CSDS present that the Congress beat the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in employee outreach. The nationwide social gathering replicated its Karnataka mannequin of staff visiting voter houses and delivering assure playing cards. There have been different features to the messaging, fastidiously tuned to the psychology of hope and expectation. A messaging ignored by regional Congress suzerains.
Saba Naqvi is a Delhi-based journalist and creator of 4 books who writes on politics and identification points.
