BJP retains higher hand in Assam however Congress finds its ft within the North-East as soon as once more
The Congress has staged a comeback within the electoral politics of the north-eastern area, rising its tally to 7 of the entire of 25 seats within the area from 4 in 2019. Native Congress leaders attributed the development within the occasion’s efficiency to Rahul Gandhi beginning his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra from Manipur and passing by most States within the area.
The BJP nonetheless dominated the election by profitable 13 seats, the utmost from the area, however its tally was decrease than the 15 it received in 2019. The general tally of the BJP and its regional allies of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and the Nationwide Democratic Alliance fell to 16 from 19 in 2019.
BJP allies received solely in Assam and Sikkim however did not win in six different States. The BJP’s wins had been restricted to the three States the place it guidelines: Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura. However it misplaced each seats in Manipur, which has been ravaged by violent ethnic battle for greater than a 12 months now.
Additionally Learn | Manipur’s divided election
The Congress received 4 seats in 2019: three in Assam and one in Meghalaya. This time, there can be Congress representatives from two extra States: Manipur and Nagaland. Its efficiency in Manipur and Nagaland has given a contemporary impetus for its organisational revival within the area, which had been ravaged by the defection of its rank and file after successive electoral defeats.
The Assam story
In Assam, the ruling BJP’s tally remained unchanged at 9, whereas its coalition companions the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United Individuals’s Occasion Liberal (UPPL) received one seat every. In 2019, of the 14 seats in Assam, the BJP received 9, the Congress 3, and the All India United Democratic Entrance (AIUDF) and the Gana Suraksha Occasion 1 every. Each the BJP and the Congress registered an increase in vote share. The vote share of the important thing gamers was: BJP 37.43 per cent, Congress 37.48 per cent, AGP 6.46 per cent, UPPL 2.43 per cent, AIUDF 3.13 per cent, and the Bodoland Individuals’s Entrance (BPF) 3.86 per cent.
The Congress’ tally additionally remained unchanged at three seats, however its victories signalled a regaining of its misplaced help base amongst Muslim voters of erstwhile East Bengal origin that went to the AIUDF, and its core Assamese voters within the strongholds of the BJP and the AGP.
Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi’s victory from Jorhat prompted a dent in BJP strongholds within the three key japanese Assam districts of Jorhat, Sivasagar, and Majuli. His victory has left the BJP and the AGP apprehensive over a domino impact within the 2026 Meeting election. The picture of Gogoi as a “sturdy parliamentarian with spectacular oratory expertise” and a “daring voice” in Parliament labored in his favour and boosted his recognition, significantly amongst younger voters. All constituents of the INDIA bloc additionally campaigned extensively for him.
Congress chief Rakibul Hussain (proper) with Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Bhupen Kumar Borah throughout a felicitation programme in Guwahati on June 7. Hussain received the Dhubri seat with the most important margin on this election.
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Abdul Sajid/ANI
Gogoi received by 1,44,393 votes towards sitting BJP MP Topon Kumar Gogoi, a former basic secretary of the All Assam College students’ Union. The BJP put within the most effort to defeat him, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and his Cupboard colleagues operating an aggressive marketing campaign.
Of the ten Meeting segments of the parliamentary constituency, the Congress has legislators in solely two and its ally Raijor Dal in a single. Gogoi took the lead in 9 segments, and solely within the Majuli phase, together with the river island Majuli, did the BJP candidate handle to take the lead. The Majuli phase, a BJP stronghold, was added to the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat throughout the delimitation train carried out final 12 months.
On the X social platform, Gaurav Gogoi mentioned: “There are numerous issues to unpack from this election. However clearly the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra of @RahulGandhi has had an affect on the Northeast. Unprecedented victory in Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Assam.”
Readying for 2026
A day after the outcomes had been introduced, Gogoi visited the Majuli island to sound the Congress’ bugle for the 2026 Meeting election. At a public rally, he dubbed the 2024 Lok Sabha election as simply the semi-final and exuded confidence that the Congress would win the ultimate in 2026 together with different constituents of the INDIA bloc.
Additionally Learn | Assam: New boundaries, new uncertainties
Nonetheless, Himanta Biswa Sarma was unfazed by the Congress victory in Jorhat. Talking to reporters, he mentioned that the BJP and its allies took the lead in 94 Meeting segments and had been strongly positioned.
The Congress’ victory within the constituency additionally intensified infighting amongst previous BJP and new BJP leaders and staff, with a number of BJP leaders voicing concern over the Congress’ inroads into saffron strongholds.
Mrinal Saikia, a sitting BJP legislator, additionally engaged in a verbal twin with Sarma after Saikia congratulated Garuv Gogoi for his victory and attributed the BJP’s loss to “vanity”. Regardless of the BJP’s stellar efficiency underneath Sarma’s management, the riot by previous BJP staff for allegedly sidelining them is prone to intensify.
Congress supporters on the primary day of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in Manipur’s Thoubal district on January 14. The yatra performed a key function in boosting the Congress’ picture throughout the north-eastern area and helped it win each seats in Manipur.
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REUTERS
Former Assam Chief Minister and Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal of the BJP received the Dibrugarh seat defeating Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) president Lurinjyoti Gogoi by 2,79,321 votes. The Congress had given the seat to the AJP, a constituent of the INDIA bloc, and he was the bloc’s consensus candidate. Gogoi polled 4,14,441 votes, which he hopes will assist the brand new regional occasion carry out higher within the 2026 Meeting election.
In Gaurav Gogoi’s victory, the State noticed the emergence of a preferred face because the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate for the 2026 election and that has left the incumbent Chief Minister and the State BJP apprehensive. Sarma noticed the rise of Gaurav Gogoi inside the Congress as a stumbling block to his dream of changing into Chief Minister. He defected to the BJP, and his want was fulfilled when the saffron occasion retained energy in 2021.
Redrawing of constituency boundaries additionally led to the elimination of the Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat from the place Gaurav Gogoi received two successive elections in 2014 and 2019. Meeting seats that had been Congress strongholds had been transferred to the Nagaon seat, and Meeting segments that had been BJP strongholds had been added to the newly constituted Kaziranga constituency. This prompted Gaurav Gogoi to combat from Jorhat. Sitting BJP Rajya Sabha MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa received from Kaziranga defeating Congress candidate Roselina Tirkey by 2,48,947 votes.
In Dhubri, the landslide victory of senior Congress chief and former Minister Rakibul Hussain towards AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal signalled the grand previous occasion regaining its misplaced help base amongst Muslim voters of erstwhile East Bengal origin. Hussain made historical past by polling 14,77,885 votes, defeating Ajmal by an enormous margin of 10,12,476 votes, the very best within the nation. Ajmal polled 4,59,409 votes whereas the AGP candidate Jabed Islam completed third with 4,38,594 votes. The AIUDF contested in three seats however drew a clean.
Reclaiming misplaced voter base
The rise of the AIUDF had led to an erosion within the conventional Congress help base. After delimitation, the variety of Meeting constituencies the place Muslim voters of erstwhile East Bengal origin play a decisive function fell from 29 to 21. The AIUDF received 16 Meeting seats in 2021.
In Kokrajhar, reserved for Scheduled Tribes, the victory of the BJP ally UPPL marked the election of a Bodo candidate from the seat after a spot of 10 years. In 2014, Naba Kumar Sarania, a former “commander” of the erstwhile United Liberation Entrance of Asom, grew to become the primary non-Bodo candidate to win the seat comprising areas underneath the Bodoland Territorial Area and adjoining areas exterior the jurisdiction of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC).
Sarania, who retained the seat in 2019, couldn’t contest this time after the Gauhati Excessive Courtroom declared that he was ineligible to contest from a reserved seat. The UPPL candidate Joyanta Basumatary defeated the BPF’s candidate Kampa Borgoyari by 51,583 votes. Elections to the BTC are scheduled to happen subsequent 12 months, and the UPPL hopes to capitalise on the Lok Sabha victory to win energy within the territorial autonomous council the place the BPF has dominated for 3 consecutive phrases.
Congress shines in Nagaland
A polling sales space in Shamator, Nagaland, wears a abandoned look on April 19 after the Japanese Nagaland Peoples’ Organisation known as for a boycott in protest towards the delay of creation of a Frontier Nagaland Territory. The boycott was profitable in in 20 Meeting segments in six districts.
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PTI
In Nagaland, the Congress efficiency stole the present, wresting the lone Lok Sabha seat from the ruling Nationalist Democratic Individuals’s Occasion (NDPP), which heads the opposition-less authorities within the State. S. Supongmeren Jamir defeated Dr Chumben Murry by 50,984 votes. The Congress has drawn a clean in two successive Meeting elections, in 2018 and 2023. Nagaland witnessed the set up of an opposition-less authorities final 12 months in any case events prolonged help to the NDPP-BJP coalition. Not a single vote was solid in 20 Meeting segments in six districts of the State after the Japanese Nagaland Individuals’s Organisation known as for a boycott in protest towards the Central authorities’s failure to settle the creation of a separate Frontier Nagaland Territory comprising the six districts.
Manipur’s response
The Manipur outcomes added sparkle to the Congress’ efficiency within the area, with the occasion wresting each the seats from the BJP-led ruling coalition. Prof. Angomcha Bimol Akoijam from JNU received because the Congress candidate from the Meitei-majority Interior Manipur constituency. He defeated his nearest BJP rival, Training Minister Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh, by 1,09,801 votes. And in Outer Manipur, the place the Naga and Kuki-Zo are in a majority, the Congress candidate Alfred Kanngam S. Arthur defeated Kachui Timothy Zimik of the Naga Individuals’s Entrance, a constituent of the BJP-led coalition authorities, by 85,418 votes. The BJP received each seats in 2019.
“The outcomes had been clearly a response to Prime Minister Modi not having visited conflict-hit Manipur even as soon as and his silence over the scenario within the State.”
The outcomes had been clearly a response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi not having visited conflict-hit Manipur even as soon as and his silence over the scenario within the State even after persistent violence claimed 220 lives and over 50,000 displaced individuals proceed to take shelter in aid camps a 12 months after the violence started.
In Meghalaya, the Congress misplaced Shillong to the Voice of the Individuals Occasion (VOTPP) however wrested the Tura seat from the ruling Nationwide Individuals’s Occasion. Congress candidate Saleng A. Sangma defeated sitting MP Agatha Okay. Sangma, who’s the sister of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, by 1,55,241 votes. Tura has been a bastion of the Sangma household, which has held it since 1977, apart from the 1989-91 interval.
Additionally Learn | An surprising twist in Arunachal Pradesh
In Mizoram, the ruling Zoram Individuals’s Motion (ZPM) wrested the lone Lok Sabha seat from the opposition Mizo Nationwide Entrance (MNF), persevering with its profitable spree within the State. The ZPM received the Meeting election with a landslide victory towards the MNF. The ZPM candidate Richard Vanlalhmangaiha’s victory towards the closest MNF rival and Rajya Sabha member Okay. Vanlalvena by 68,288 votes helped the ruling occasion consolidate its electoral help.
In Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP swept the simultaneous Meeting and Lok Sabha elections. It received each the Lok Sabha seats: Union Minister Kiren Rijiju from Arunachal West and Tapir Gao from Arunachal East. Rijiju received by 1,00,738 votes towards Congress rival and former Chief Minister Nabam Tuki; whereas Gao received by 30,421 votes towards the Congress candidate, Bosiram Siram.
Incumbent Chief Minister Pema Khandu is predicted to put on the crown of Chief Minister for the third time in a row after main the occasion to spectacular victory, profitable 46 seats within the 60-member Meeting, rising the occasion tally by 5 seats. The BJP’s return was anticipated, with the occasion already profitable 10 seats unopposed together with that of Khandu. The Congress managed to win just one seat.
