Contrarian Punjab could throw up a shock once more

Punjab has typically resisted common mainstream traits and manifested a reasonably contrarian streak on the subject of electoral politics. That is one border State that the BJP below Prime Minister Narendra Modi discovered troublesome to make inroads into even when the voter euphoria for Modi swept the nation twice. In each 2014 and 2019, the get together may win solely two seats.

The BJP’s Hindutva push has to this point discovered restricted resonance in Punjab. In 2022, the State catapulted the AAP to energy with an astonishing verdict the likes of which Punjab had not seen till then. The voters even booted out the 100-year-old Akali Dal that claims help on the premise of its Sikh Panthic credentials. Veteran political leaders reminiscent of Capt. Amarinder Singh and the influential Badal household and several other others who as soon as dominated the roost have been additionally proven the door by voters.

Modified panorama

On this Lok Sabha election, the political panorama has modified utterly. It’s now marked by damaged alliances and quite a few turncoats, whereas radical sentiment is spurring new help for hardliners. The youth are nonetheless within the grip of the drug menace. All these, together with a protracted and belligerent agitation by farmers, have made Punjab an intriguing battleground.

Additionally Learn | Narrative of AAP operating Punjab from Delhi unlikely to bode effectively

The electoral contest is not a bipolar one between the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), or SAD (B). The AAP, a political greenhorn till a number of years in the past, now has a sizeable footprint, whereas the BJP, a former ally of the SAD, is eager to develop wings of its personal for the primary time in practically three many years.

In 2019, the saffron get together gained solely two seats with a 9.6 per cent vote share. It performed second fiddle to the SAD, with city constituents forming its core voter base. The primary agitation in opposition to the now-repealed farm legal guidelines (in 2019) led to the SAD (B) and the BJP breaking their alliance of three many years.

Though there are challenges galore for the BJP after the break-up, the get together additionally sees it as a chance to broaden its footprint, which is why it rejected a suggestion by the SAD (B) to revive ties forward of the election.

Previously, the BJP would contest in solely three Lok Sabha constituencies as a part of the seat-sharing settlement with the SAD, which took the lion’s share of 10 seats. This time, the BJP has put up candidates in all 13 seats. BJP insiders mentioned the get together is probably not anticipating to win many seats, however it hopes to extend its vote share.

Hope and despair

Maqbolpura on the outskirts of Amritsar is taking a look at all the things with a mixture of hope and despair. Dozens of motorcades of assorted political events go by means of the slim lanes of this village, rigorously manoeuvring previous small homes on both aspect. Maqbolpura is infamous for drug use and deaths from drug overdose. Each household within the village has a narrative to relate. This village hopes that some political get together will present the resolve to avoid wasting its future generations.

Farmers elevating slogans after they have been stopped from marching to protest at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election rally, in Gurdaspur on Might 24.
| Photograph Credit score:
RAMINDER PAL SINGH/ANI

The BJP’s candidate for the Amritsar seat is Taranjit Singh Sandhu, a former Ambassador to the US. He’s typically known as “Samundri” to evoke the legacy of his grandfather Teja Singh Samundri, a founding member of the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee who fought in opposition to the British and died in Lahore jail in 1926.

“Our focus is on holistic growth. The BJP’s flagship schemes and different schemes have percolated to the final mile. However points like medicine have to be addressed on precedence,” Sandhu mentioned.

The BJP final gained the Amritsar seat in 2009. High leaders, together with Arun Jaitley and Hardeep Singh Puri, needed to chew the mud.

Protests in opposition to BJP

As if the challenges of a damaged alliance and the search for brand spanking new candidates for all of the seats weren’t sufficient, the BJP is on the receiving finish of brickbats within the wake of the continued farmer protests in Punjab and Haryana. Farmers are placing up each doable resistance, exhibiting black flags and hurling abuse at BJP candidates, to dam the entry of the BJP into Punjab’s villages.

“These protests have been orchestrated by the AAP, which has colluded with the Congress. We’ve got introduced the matter to the discover of the Chief Electoral Officer. The BJP’s proper to marketing campaign in an election is being hampered,” State BJP chief Sunil Jakhar instructed Frontline.

Many see the BJP in Punjab because the previous Congress. Many former Congress leaders, reminiscent of Amarinder Singh, Preneet Kaur, Sunil Jakhar, Ravneet Bittu, and Rana Gurjit, switched loyalties to hitch the saffron fold.

Whereas Amarinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar aren’t contesting, Preneet Kaur, Amarinder’s spouse, is the BJP candidate in Patiala. A troublesome battle is on the playing cards right here as she is pitted in opposition to the Congress’ Dr Dharamvir Gandhi, a heart specialist, who was as soon as with the AAP. “Our proper to marketing campaign is being denied by farm unions. Regardless of this, we’re reaching out to the folks with the BJP’s and Prime Minister Modi’s growth agenda,” Preneet Kaur instructed Frontline.

No takers for Hindutva

Apparently, the rhetoric surrounding the Ram Mandir appears subdued in Punjab, with BJP candidates focussing their marketing campaign mainly on the “Modi growth” narrative.

Regardless of Modi’s amplified hyper-nationalism and nationwide safety pitch, and his deal with the nation’s purported rising affect within the international order, the echo of those subjects has remained faint in Punjab. Points surrounding the agrarian disaster, minimal help worth for crops, the drug menace, social safety, and the attain of beneficiary schemes stay quintessential to the folks and the polity.

The efficiency of the AAP will likely be keenly watched. Its reputation is seen as one other instance of Punjab’s contrarian tendency: 10 years in the past the State gave the AAP its solely 4 Lok Sabha MPs; right now AAP doesn’t have any MPs. The Sangrur seat that Bhagwant Mann vacated to turn into Chief Minister after the 2022 Meeting election, was wrested by Simranjit Singh Mann of the SAD (Amritsar), a former IPS officer and Khalistan ideologue.

AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal’s interim bail has come as a shot within the arm for the get together. A very good present in Punjab will bolster the AAP’s place within the INDIA bloc. However the get together’s prospects are marred by many failed guarantees, reminiscent of Rs.1,000 for each girl in Punjab, and its lack of ability to examine the unbridled drug menace.

Pawan Kumar Tinu of the AAP at a roadshow earlier than submitting his nomination papers for the Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat on Might 13.
| Photograph Credit score:
SUNNY SEHGAL/ANI

AAP benefit

On the floor degree, the Aam Aadmi clinics and free electrical energy as much as 300 models to every client have buoyed the AAP’s prospects. Mann and Kejriwal extol the presence of practically 830 such clinics in Punjab’s 22 districts throughout the three areas of Malwa, Majha, and Doaba. The advantages of free therapy, free medicines, and free diagnoses have reached even distant villages.

The Congress, in contrast to in Delhi and Chandigarh, didn’t agree on an alliance with the AAP in Punjab. In truth, the 2 events are in direct contest. In 2019, the Congress gained eight seats with a close to 41 per cent vote share. However that was a distinct Congress then. Its face will not be the identical any extra in Punjab, with the get together having misplaced credibility with the exit of a number of stalwarts.

Congress chief Rahul Gandhi’s experiment to impact a management change—changing Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister with Charanjit Channi, a Dalit chief—a number of months earlier than the 2022 Meeting election failed.

Additionally Learn | Farmers’ protest 2.0: On the troublesome highway to MSP

In truth, it proved counterproductive. The Dalit card was ineffective, once more a pointer to Punjab’s contrarian streak. Though the State has the very best per capita inhabitants of Scheduled Castes within the nation, at about 32 per cent, voters in 2022 discounted this issue and booted the Congress out.

The border State can also be seeing a surge in radical sentiments on this election. Amritpal Singh, head of Waris Punjab De, at the moment lodged in Dibrugarh jail in Assam below the Nationwide Safety Act, is contesting as an unbiased in Khadoor Sahib. He has been outspoken about his radical mindset, even claiming that he doesn’t recognise the Structure. In truth, there are at the least six Khalistan ideologues, together with Simranjit Singh Mann, within the fray this time, greater than in 2019.

In the meantime, the SAD(B), an ethno-religious get together, ploughs a lonely furrow. A troublesome combat is brewing in Bathinda the place the get together has lots at stake. Harsimrat Kaur, former Minister in Modi’s cupboard and spouse of SAD(B) chief Sukhbir Singh Badal, is in search of a fourth consecutive time period. She faces spirited rivals of the AAP and the Congress within the constituency. The SAD(B) has been on a swift downward trajectory in Punjab. Whether or not it may stall the decline after breaking off from the BJP stays to be seen.

In some ways, Punjab has but once more redefined the matrix on this election. And the outcomes will set the tone for the 2027 Meeting election.

Gautam Dheer has been protecting coverage and politics in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh for over twenty years.