BJP’s absence in Kashmir’s essential seats: Tactical transfer or acknowledgment of Valley’s floor realities?

Voters present their voting paperwork earlier than casting their votes throughout phase-IV of voting for the Lok Sabha elections on Might 15, 2024.
| Picture Credit score: ANI

Within the first main election to be held in Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370, the Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) will not be contesting from any of the three Valley seats—Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag—leaving the electoral battle to 2 main regional events, the Nationwide Convention (NC) and the Folks’s Democratic Celebration (PDP). Within the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP had six candidates within the fray in Jammu and Kashmir however did not win a single seat in Kashmir.

Union Residence Minister Amit Shah mentioned final month, whereas addressing an election rally in Jammu, that the saffron celebration was not in a rush to see the “lotus bloom” within the Valley. In a latest interview to The Hindu, he mentioned: “We determined that we’ll first construct up our organisation on the bottom after which area a candidate.”

A senior BJP chief in Kashmir, Hina Shafi Bhat, instructed Frontline that Kashmir’s three seats wouldn’t resolve the destiny of BJP within the nation. “The parliamentary committee of BJP took a call to not contest the Lok Sabha polls from Kashmir this time. It’s not essential to be in energy all over the place as a result of we can have 500 folks in Parliament.”

The leaders of the 2 regional events, NC and PDP, have maintained that the BJP is counting on proxy candidates, and has arrange B and C groups within the Valley: Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Celebration, Sajad Lone’s Peoples Convention, and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Celebration (DPAP).

Whereas the BJP will not be formally aligned with any regional celebration in Kashmir, the place its vote share in 2019 was lower than two per cent, the saffron celebration is supporting what BJP leaders name “like-minded events”. Senior BJP chief and Jammu and Kashmir spokesperson Altaf Thakur instructed Frontline: “BJP leaders used their democratic proper to forged votes to like-minded events who imagine in patriotism, peace and improvement.”

Additionally Learn | Why Kashmir has not seen an election boycott this time

Throughout his Jammu rally, Shah requested the folks to not vote for NC, PDP and the Congress, which leaves BJP’s proxies. Each Bukhari and Lone have supported one another within the election. Bukhari didn’t area any candidates in Baramulla seat and declared assist to Lone. Likewise, Lone didn’t area any candidates in Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri seats, declaring assist to Apni Celebration.

Jammu and Kashmir Apni Celebration President Altaf Bukhari and celebration leaders perform a roadshow in Srinagar.
| Picture Credit score:
ANI

Based on Nadeem Parra, the brother of Waheed Parra, the PDP candidate for the Srinagar constituency, abstaining from contesting the election in Kashmir is a tactical determination for the BJP. “The celebration is aware of the fact that it’ll lose in Kashmir. The shortage of assist within the Valley has compelled the highest brass to concentrate on the remainder of the nation,” Parra instructed Frontline after casting his vote in Naira village of south Kashmir’s Pulwama district.

Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst and former professor of political science on the College of Kashmir, mentioned that the BJP didn’t count on the folks of Kashmir to vote for it after it repealed Article 370 and likewise lowered its standing to a Union Territory.

Testing the waters

Equally, professor Saifuddin Soz, former Union Minister mentioned that the BJP rapidly realised that the individuals are nonetheless indignant concerning the abrogation of Article 370, which is why it introduced in proxies within the type of some regional events. Based on Soz even these proxies can be rejected by the folks.

Most analysts and journalists imagine that the BJP is testing the waters with its proxies to gauge the general public temper and put together the bottom for the Meeting election scheduled to be held later this yr. “BJP has taken a wise step. So as to keep away from an embarrassing defeat, it determined to make use of proxies and prepare to problem within the Meeting elections,” mentioned Abdul Rashid, a 45-year-old voter from the Srinagar constituency.

Nationwide Convention President Farooq Abdullah and his son former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah present their inked fingers after casting their votes.
| Picture Credit score:
NISSAR AHMAD

The leaders of the NC and PDP have questioned the absence of the BJP within the fray. Former Chief Minister and NC vp Omar Abdullah requested in a TV interview, “If the folks had been okay with the scrapping of Article 370, the BJP wouldn’t have surrendered polls in Kashmir.”

Additionally Learn | Why deferment of Lok Sabha election in Anantnag-Rajouri has triggered controversy

There’s one other issue. Earlier this month, Abdullah mentioned in a media interview that fielding Muslim candidates in Kashmir would have made BJP’s anti-Muslim stance in the remainder of the nation slightly troublesome to promote. “You can not area non-Muslim candidates within the overwhelmingly Muslim majority seats in Kashmir. If I’m not incorrect, there may be not a single Muslim candidate preventing on a BJP ticket wherever in India in the present day.”

A senior journalist who has lined Jammu and Kashmir because the 1999 Kargil battle instructed Frontline that the BJP couldn’t discover potential candidates to contest. “Through the years, the BJP has invested in numerous candidates however finally it couldn’t lead them into the Lok Sabha election.”

However, BJP celebration employees, primarily from the Pir Panjal area, are resentful of the celebration’s determination to not area candidates within the Anantnag-Rajouri seat both, particularly after the Modi authorities granted Scheduled Tribe standing to the Pahari group and applied Forest Rights Act in Jammu and Kashmir for the Gujjar group. The employees claimed that these initiatives had created a superb assist base for the BJP in Rajouri and Poonch districts.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based mostly in Jammu and Kashmir.