PMK’s alliance with the BJP in Tamil Nadu defies logic

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) calls it “mysterious”. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) says it’s a “breach of belief”. Political watchers discover it baffling. And the rank and file of the get together are dismayed. The problem that has acquired all tongues wagging is the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) partnering with the BJP in Tamil Nadu for the Lok Sabha election.

By all accounts the PMK determined on the final minute to affix the BJP’s rag-tag alliance of political sundries in Tamil Nadu even because the AIADMK, the primary opposition get together within the State now, stored its doorways open for its erstwhile companion to affix the alliance it leads. The PMK was within the AIADMK alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the 2021 Meeting election, during which the opposite companions had been the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the BJP.

Additionally Learn | Tamil Nadu: Publish-election curbs

The PMK’s choice, extra perplexing than shocking, has generated numerous hypothesis and intense debate. The PMK has been identified to modify between the 2 Dravidian majors, and its political opportunism has additionally discovered it becoming a member of the BJP-led NDA alliance for the 2014 Lok Sabha election, together with the DMDK and Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK). Jayalalithaa received that election on the “Modi or Woman” slogan, with AIADMK profitable 37 of the 39 seats. Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, son of get together founder Dr S. Ramadoss, efficiently contested from the Dharmapuri constituency. He misplaced the seat in 2019, and now his spouse Soumya, is the candidate there.

BJP’s alliances in Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is perceived as anti-Tamil Nadu, anti-Tamil, and anti-minorities. The get together’s “one-nation, one language, one tradition” agenda makes the Tamil Nadu citizens uneasy. Regardless of cosying as much as the saffron get together within the aftermath of its chief Jayalalitha’s loss of life, the explanation the AIADMK dropped the BJP from its alliance earlier than the election was a really primary one: it might have meant a heavy erosion of the minority and Dalit votes. It was within the midst of the gloomy prospects that this break entailed for the BJP’s “400 paar” dream, for which profitable seats within the South is important, that the PMK walked in. It unfold cheer amongst BJP supporters as they eyed a bonanza within the northern districts, the place the PMK is powerful.

So, what occasioned the sudden change of thoughts of the PMK excessive command when even the mainstream events are unwilling to ally with the BJP? Was it extra compulsion than alternative for the PMK in Tamil Nadu’s caste-centric turf the place the get together wields appreciable electoral clout?

The PMK’s power has been its caste mobilisation within the northern districts the place the Vanniyars, a part of probably the most backward caste (MBC) checklist, are predominant. This in flip prompts events just like the DMK and the AIADMK to attempt to preserve the get together inside their fold. On the flip facet, the get together, which started as a caste-based outfit within the Seventies after which bloomed right into a regional participant within the Eighties, lacks a pan-Tamil Nadu presence and has to ally with a serious get together for political relevance. And the PMK’s vote share has been round 5 per cent no matter whether or not the alliance it’s in wins or loses. The BJP’s vote share has remained at round 4 per cent. The AIADMK, regardless of all its inner troubles, has maintained a 35 per cent vote share in all elections.

The BJP at the moment relies upon by itself social media predictions about its development in Tamil Nadu. The get together’s State unit president Okay. Annamalai and his workforce consider that the get together will get round 18 per cent of the vote however within the absence of any strong knowledge or evaluation, that is only a quantity constructed on hope. The query due to this fact arises about why the PMK management ought to make the gamble of going with a celebration that’s but to indicate a reputable efficiency within the State.

To win in Tamil Nadu, any alliance must have a vote share of greater than 40 per cent. The DMK alliance received the 2021 Meeting election with a vote share of 45.38 per cent in opposition to the AIADMK’s 38.17 per cent. Within the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the DMK alliance received 38 of 39 seats with 53.15 per cent of the votes in opposition to the AIADMK’s 30.57 per cent. Theni was the lone seat the AIADMK received.

The BJP claims to be stronger this time, based mostly on its previous performances in Coimbatore, Kanyakumari, and Ramanathapuram, whereas the PMK lacks any help exterior the northern districts. Thus, whereas the BJP could get a lift in its vote share due to the PMK, the latter beneficial properties no vital profit or benefit by being within the alliance.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a public assembly, in Chennai on March 4, 2024. The saffron get togethers alliance with the PMK get together in TN has taken political observers abruptly.

Regardless of being a recognised regional get together with a devoted image, the PMK has a decrease vote share than the actor-turned-politician Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), which normally musters round 8 per cent vote share throughout Tamil Nadu in elections. However the PMK’s benefit is its “concentrated presence” within the northern districts, which have practically 90 of the whole 234 seats within the State Meeting. This distinctive caste-oriented primacy offers it an edge that makes it vital for any alliance. The NTK, for causes finest identified to it, prefers to combat alone, shunning alliances. In truth, the BJP now covets the area the NTK occupies in Tamil Nadu politics, and eyes the latter’s 8 per cent vote share.

Whereas addressing a latest election assembly in Viluppuram district, the senior chief and former AIADMK Minister C. V. Shanmugam mentioned that the PMK had carried out “exhausting bargaining” when he had met the get together founder Dr Ramadoss at his residence close to Tindivanam city to ask him to proceed within the AIADMK alliance. He didn’t elaborate additional. Shanmugam criticised the father-son duo for making guarantees that they didn’t preserve. He referred to as it a “traitorous act” and mentioned he can be pressured to disclose what transpired between the 2 events when the alliance talks had been on.

Behind PMK-AIADMK cut up

The PMK management has but to present a reputable rationalization for its choice to dump the AIADMK. In a press convention, Anbumani and Ramadoss claimed that they needed to half with the AIADMK because the get together had not heeded their plea for a ten.5 per cent reservation for Vanniyars throughout the MBC quota. They mentioned that the then Chief Minister Edappadi Okay. Palaniswami had handed the federal government order on the final minute in a haphazard method. “Now it’s entangled in authorized points. Moreover, the alliance with the AIADMK in 2019 and 2021 didn’t profit the PMK. Whereas our votes acquired transferred to the AIADMK and different companions, their votes didn’t get transferred to the PMK. It’s treason,” they claimed.

The justification has not reduce any ice with the get together’s cadre. Suresh, an ardent PMK cadre and a employee within the imitation jewelry trade in Chidambaram, says that lots of his get together colleagues are sad with the management’s choice to align with the BJP. “Had the get together returned to the AIADMK alliance, the combat in opposition to the DMK entrance would have been shut. Now, it’s between the VCK and the AIADMK,” he mentioned. (The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi chief Thol Thirumavalavan is the DMK alliance candidate in Chidambaram, a reserved constituency.) Many within the PMK echo his views.

A senior functionary from a northern district, requesting anonymity, instructed Frontline that the choice to go together with the BJP had upset the cadres and functionaries. “We now have joined an alliance to not get elected,” he mentioned. He additionally refuted the claims of the get together excessive command that the choice was taken on the high-level district secretaries’ assembly on March 18. “There was no dialogue by any means. The choice was simply introduced on the assembly,” he mentioned.

Whereas the BJP likes to consider that it’s going to get an 18 per cent vote share within the State, it has no examine or science to again it. Neither does the PMK belief such inflated numbers. It, nevertheless, takes consolation in developments elsewhere within the nation in favour of the BJP, and hopes the PMK too will profit from it.

There may be one other intriguing issue. Anbumani’s Rajya Sabha time period, a seat that he acquired with the help of the AIADMK in 2019, will finish in one other two years. At this stage, why did the PMK select to guess on a shedding horse?

Additionally Learn | Unique reservation for Vanniyar Group in Tamil Nadu: Enjoying with fireplace

The BJP has struggled to search out candidates to subject on this election. It needed identified faces, so made Tamilisai Soundararajan resign as Governor of Telangana and Puducherry and contest from South Chennai. It requested L. Murugan, Minister of State and Rajya Sabha MP from Madhya Pradesh, to contest from the Nilgiris reserved constituency. It fielded its Tamil Nadu Meeting ground chief and MLA, Nainar Nagendran, in Tirunelveli. State get together president Annamalai, who famously insisted that he most well-liked to not contest however tour the State, was pressed into service in Coimbatore. Yesteryear actor Radhika Sarathkumar, educationist A.C. Shanmugan, and media baron and industrialist Parivendhar are its different candidates. John Pandian, a Dalit chief and founding father of Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, can also be an alliance candidate. The Tamil Nadu unit of the BJP believes these faces can match the would possibly of the Dravidian events.

The PMK cadres have began work. “We love our physician ayya. It’s he who made our backward caste a drive in Tamil Nadu. Although we now have variations of opinion, we oblige what he says. If the BJP advantages from us, let or not it’s,” mentioned a senior member campaigning in Vellore and Arakkonam.

Whereas identification politics has definitely helped the get together, its choice this time signifies that all 10 PMK candidates seem to be sacrificial lambs supplied on the altar of the politics of opportunism.

Also Read: PM Narendra Modi sets a bold target of almost doubling the economy and exports in this decade