How Congress pulled off a morale-booster victory in Telangana

The Congress managed to stun the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana by acquiring a easy majority within the election to the 119-member Meeting held in November, ruining the hat-trick hopes of Chief Minister Ok. Chandrashekhar Rao, popularly referred to as KCR.

The Congress gained 64 seats, whereas the BRS bagged 39 and the BJP eight. The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) retained all its seven seats within the Hyderabad Outdated Metropolis area, whereas the Congress’ coalition associate Communist Occasion of India gained one seat.

On December 7, Telangana Congress chief Anumula Revanth Reddy was sworn in as the brand new Chief Minister and Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka because the Deputy Chief Minister. The primary Cupboard assembly resolved to implement two of the six election ensures on December 9: free journey for ladies in State transport buses and medical help of as much as Rs.10 lakh for eligible households.

The Congress’ aggressive marketing campaign boosted anti-BRS sentiment in a number of pockets. The occasion made vital positive aspects in rural areas, whereas the BRS retained a lot of the seats within the Larger Hyderabad area. That is the best tally for the Congress in Telangana since 1983, when the area was a part of undivided Andhra Pradesh.

The Congress’ vote share elevated by 11 per cent, a lot of which appears to have come from the BRS vote base. The Congress additionally reportedly loved the skin help of the Telugu Desam Occasion cadre in a number of constituencies.

Passengers in Sangareddy district cheer free bus journey for ladies, one of many Congress’ six election guarantees, which was launched within the State on December 9.
| Photograph Credit score:
MOHD ARIF

Aggressive marketing campaign

Revanth Reddy’s aggressive marketing campaign towards the KCR household and the BRS seems to have been the primary cause for the win. With the Congress cadre regaining confidence after the Karnataka election outcomes, Revanth Reddy and Vikramarka’s relentless campaigns sustained the momentum for the Congress. The occasion had gained the notion battle a lot earlier, when leaders from the BRS and the BJP started defecting to the Congress from Might.

The Congress precisely assessed the discontent, anti-incumbency feeling, and the notion of elevated corruption. Information from the Lokniti-CSDS survey confirmed that although individuals had a beneficial opinion of the BRS’ governance, a big 46 per cent of these polled believed that corruption had elevated within the State. What aided the marketing campaign was the absence of the KCR household from the general public realm till just a few months earlier than the election, which distanced them from the voters and created discontent amongst supporters. In line with the Lokniti-CSDS survey knowledge, the Congress’ outreach amongst kids paid off. Almost 41 per cent of these beneath 25 voted for it, whereas the BRS obtained 33 per cent of their votes, the information confirmed.

Revanth Reddy’s involvement within the cash-for-vote rip-off of 2015 was introduced up by the BRS just a few instances throughout its marketing campaign, but it surely didn’t dent the Congress’ prospects. One other vital issue within the Congress victory was protecting infighting to a minimal.

Whereas each the Congress and the BRS campaigned on the welfare plank, the previous appears to have given voters the boldness that previous schemes will proceed along with six new ensures, mentioned Prof. Afroz Alam, head of the Political Science Division at Maulana Azad Nationwide Urdu College, Hyderabad.

Inside days of being elected, the Congress rushed to painting itself as extra democratic and accessible. It tore down the barricades exterior the Chief Minister’s Camp Workplace (Pragathi Bhavan, rechristened as Jyotirao Phule Praja Bhavan), giving pedestrians a safer street. By way of its “Praja Darbar”, it has additionally opened up its workplace to the general public.

Finance Minister D. Sridhar Babu mentioned the occasion will launch a white paper on the State’s funds, together with expenditure between 2014 and 2023. The Congress contested the election as a nationally related occasion with a robust regional presence, which observers mentioned might assist its prospects within the common election subsequent yr.

Highlights

• The Congress secured a easy majority with 64 seats, ending Chief Minister KCR’s quest for a 3rd time period. BRS gained 39 seats, BJP 8, and AIMIM retained its 7 seats.
• Congress attributed its victory to Revanth Reddy’s marketing campaign towards KCR, rural positive aspects, and elevated vote share with help from TDP cadre.
• BRS confronted inside points, welfare mannequin shortcomings, and misplaced regardless of a decent 37.35 per cent vote share. BJP emerged a distant third however considerably improved its efficiency, signalling potential future progress.

BRS’ errors

Harathi Vageeshan, a political science professor at Hyderabad’s NALSAR College of Regulation, mentioned there have been structural, tactical, and governance-related errors behind the BRS’ loss. He added that KCR’s incapability to incorporate others in decision-making was one of many main structural points together with his management model.

In a case of too little too late, KCR opened up his farmhouse residence in Erravelli village to the general public after the electoral defeat, which most likely was an try to indicate that KCR nonetheless enjoys a lot help and likewise to counter the criticism of inaccessible management.

BRS chief and former Chief Minister Ok. Chandrashekar Rao greets supporters at his residence in Siddipet district on December 6.
| Photograph Credit score:
PTI

In hindsight, analysts imagine that the BRS had overestimated its grip on the State, which was particularly evident in KCR’s loss in Kamareddy constituency. He retained the Gajwel seat, although. And most members of his household and prolonged household gained with vital majorities. Nonetheless, KCR’s 95-plus rallies couldn’t persuade voters to provide him a 3rd time period. Neither did the BRS’ assurances of addressing the failures of its 10-year rule.

Vageeshan mentioned that one other key cause behind the BRS loss was its welfare mannequin, which excluded a number of beneficiary teams who deserved help. Additional, allegations of corruption and favouritism within the allotment of social housing flats and within the collection of beneficiaries for monetary help schemes reminiscent of Dalit Bandhu and BC Bandhu proved essential in consolidating help for the Congress. The BRS additionally paid the value for ignoring these aged between 18 and 40 in its insurance policies and welfare measures, mentioned Vageeshan.

A number of tactical errors in latest months value the BRS expensive. As an illustration, KCR refused to oust non-performing MLAs. Many pundits believed that this mirrored a assured occasion. Nonetheless, most of those MLAs misplaced, whereas eight of the 10-odd new candidates gained. The occasion was unable to retain even half of the 88 seats it gained in 2018.

Additionally Learn | ‘BRS has looted the individuals of Telangana’: Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka

One other essential mistake was not with the ability to maintain a lid each on the discontent amongst its leaders and the spats with the highest management. The largest beneficiary of this was the Congress. Over 10 leaders who defected to the Congress gained, taking part in a significant function within the Congress’ victory. They embrace Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy, who gained from Palair, and Jupally Krishna Rao, who gained from Kollapur. They have been suspended by the BRS in April and wooed by each the BJP and the Congress.

Tummala Nageswara Rao is one other large title who gained (from Khammam). All three have discovered a spot within the Congress Cupboard. Some members who resigned from the BRS and the BJP as not too long ago as October additionally gained.

The mercurial Mynampally Hanumantha Rao was the one distinguished defector to lose. Rao and his son Mynampally Rohith joined the Congress after the BRS refused to provide Rohith the ticket. Rohith gained from Medak, however Rao misplaced to Marri Rajashekar Reddy of the BRS by almost 50,000 votes. The Congress might have gained Bhadrachalam if it had clinched a cope with the CPI(M); as it’s, it misplaced to the BRS by 5,719 votes whereas the CPI(M) obtained 5,860 votes.

Nonetheless, the BRS has certainly not been routed, and has a decent vote share of 37.35 per cent, not far behind the Congress’ 39.40 per cent. Political observers maintained that there was no wave in favour of the Congress. Prof. Afroz Alam mentioned if there been a wave, the occasion would have gained 75-80 seats and a 7-8 per cent vote share lead. The final consensus is that the Congress has lots of work to do if it desires to duplicate this in 2024.

Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy of the BJP, who defeated each former Chief Minister Ok. Chandrashekar Rao and the brand new Chief Minister Revanth Reddy to win
the Kamareddy Meeting seat on December 3.
| Photograph Credit score:
ANI

BJP’s strides

As for the BJP, the occasion remained a distant third however made huge strides by posting an enormous bounce in tally from one seat in 2018 to eight and almost doubling its vote share to 13.9 per cent from 6.98 per cent in 2018. Additionally, the occasion stood second in 18 seats, a sign of the inroads it has made into the State. Its star performer was Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy, who delivered an enormous jolt to each the Congress and the BRS by defeating Revanth Reddy and KCR in Kamareddy.

In 2014 and 2018, the BJP’s fortunes have been restricted to Hyderabad and Rangareddy areas. By the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it had expanded its presence and this yr most of its wins got here from the northern districts.

With elevated illustration within the Meeting, the BJP might emerge as a extra vital power within the 2024 Lok Sabha election, mentioned Prof. Afroz Alam. He additionally identified that it was the BRS that gave the BJP a tricky struggle (in six of the eight constituencies that the BJP gained), not the Congress. In seats with triangular fights, the Congress didn’t fare nicely towards the BJP.

The proper-wing poster boy T. Raja Singh retained his Goshamahal seat in Hyderabad, however MP and former State occasion chief Bandi Sanjay and Dharmapuri Aravind, additionally an MP, misplaced regardless of a number of last-ditch efforts. The three had led essentially the most Hindutva-oriented campaigns.

Additionally Learn | Modi’s heartland sweep a warning signal for complacent Congress

After his defeat, Sanjay blamed the Muslims of Karimnagar, the place he misplaced to the BRS candidate by a slim margin of three,163 votes. He implored individuals to consider the implications for “Hindu Dharma” and dog-whistled about how “they” (Muslims) lacked integrity and united towards him. Sanjay is predicted to return because the BJP’s candidate for the Karimnagar Lok Sabha seat, which he gained in 2019. There’s hypothesis that the BJP may try a course correction and convey again Sanjay because the State chief, as his removing had been criticised by occasion cadre and loyalists.

Eatala Rajender, the previous BRS chief who continues to show he’s a misfit within the BJP, misplaced an election for the primary time in his political profession of over 20 years. He was heading the BJP’s election marketing campaign within the State.

The BJP contested 111 seats and put aside the remainder for its coalition associate, the JanaSena Occasion, which did not make a mark. The consolidation of Hindu votes in constituencies with a excessive Muslim voter base appears to have been one of many essential elements at play, signalling a minor victory for the BJP’s makes an attempt at social engineering.

Nonetheless, observers additionally credited the BJP leaders’ accessibility of their constituencies and their give attention to hyper-local points for the occasion’s vastly improved efficiency.

Chief Minister Revanth Reddy interacts with most people in the course of the “Praja Darbar”, at Jyotiba Phule Praja Bhavan in Hyderabad on December 8.
| Photograph Credit score:
Mohammed Aleemuddin/ANI

Meeting composition

The caste and spiritual composition of the Meeting registered little change regardless of the shift of energy from a regional occasion to a nationwide occasion. Within the run-up to the election, all events made tall guarantees about elevated Backward Class illustration, however the over-representation of the dominant caste elites continues.

There are fewer than 20 BC MLAs within the Meeting in a State the place BCs reportedly represent over 50 per cent of the inhabitants. Members of the Reddy group gained 43 seats in 2023, up from 40 in 2018 and 42 in 2014; they reportedly account for lower than 5 per cent of the inhabitants. The Velama illustration has elevated to 13 MLAs from 10 in 2018 and 2014, they usually reportedly account for 1-2 per cent of the inhabitants.

The illustration of Muslims, who comprise 12.6 per cent of the inhabitants, is confined to single digits, all belonging to the AIMIM. Not one of the Muslim candidates of the Congress or the BRS gained. Muslim supporters of the Congress anticipate the occasion to appoint a few Muslim leaders as MLCs and have not less than one Muslim chief within the Cupboard.

Analysts imagine the implications of the 2023 Meeting election outcomes are far-reaching and have positioned the State at a vital juncture. The Congress doesn’t have a snug sufficient majority to be absolutely comfy. Even because the BRS stays the first opposition, the BJP is unlikely to cede house because the dissenting voice. The AIMIM, which has seven seats, has not shifted allegiance both. With almost 45 per cent of the MLAs within the opposition, the Congress’ each transfer shall be intently watched, in contrast to within the 2014 and 2018 Telangana Assemblies, the place a reputable opposition was lacking for essentially the most half.

Additional, the Congress’ positive aspects normally come at the price of weakening regional events whereas the vote share of the BJP stays intact, mentioned Prof. Afroz Alam. He added that the Congress has to comply with up on its strategic win by fulfilling its guarantees, and by protecting regional sentiments alive and intact.