Together with his concentrate on welfare schemes, Ok. Chandrashekar Rao holds a commanding lead in Telangana

The slogan Neellu, Nidhulu, Niyamakalu (“water, funds, jobs”), which served as the premise for Telangana’s formation in 2014, continues to dominate the electoral discourse in 2023. Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) chief Ok. Chandrashekar Rao, or KCR, is hoping to win a 3rd consecutive time period as Chief Minister using on his welfare schemes. A resurgent Congress hopes to leverage the perceived anti-incumbency in opposition to the BRS over undelivered guarantees and points resembling unemployment. “Ten years after reaching statehood, these elementary wants proceed to persist. The BRS has failed miserably on all fronts up to now decade. The State’s wealth has not been equitably distributed; employment alternatives stay scarce; and irrigation tasks have been applied poorly,” mentioned Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka, Congress Legislature Occasion chief, who went on a 100-day padayatra early this yr to know the heartbeat of the individuals.

The BRS is contesting in all of the 119 seats within the November 30 election. Beneficiaries of its welfare schemes are sturdy votaries of the celebration. The welfare schemes cowl virtually all sections of society. There may be Aasara pension for senior residents, widows, single ladies, weavers, toddy tappers, beedi staff, AIDS sufferers, filaria sufferers, and others; Rythu Bandhu (crop funding assist) and Rythu Bima insurance coverage schemes for farmers; double bed room homes to the eligible (2.91 lakh homes formally recorded as sanctioned); the KCR Vitamin Package for pregnant ladies; Kalyana Lakshmi/Shaadi Mubarak scheme for marriage assist; and Dalit Bandhu and BC Bandhu monetary help for Dalits and Backward Class households.

Some caste teams allege that they’ve been neglected of the schemes. Harathi Vageeshan, a political science professor at Hyderabad’s NALSAR College of Legislation, mentioned that aggressive welfarism had created a wedge between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. In line with him, the BRS ought to have used its second time period for value-addition and to create employment alternatives, however what has occurred as a substitute is the disruption of “productive processes” and the underdevelopment of capability constructing, besides within the case of the service sector.

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The discomfort and rigidity among the many BRS’ campaigners was evident up to now two months. In an try at course correction, KCR’s son Ok.T. Rama Rao held unique conferences with job aspirants to reassure them of their considerations about unemployment. Refuting opposition claims, Rama Rao reeled off statistics: as many as 1,60,083 vacancies had been crammed since 2014 in Telangana and choice for one more 42,652 individuals was underneath method.

Within the context of improvement tasks, the sagging of the Medigadda (Lakshmi) barrage of the Kaleshwaram venture couldn’t have come at a worse time for the BRS. Congress leaders’ go to to the barrage, adopted by a damning report from a Central panel, pushed the BRS on the defensive. Rama Rao made it clear that the development firm, L&T, would do the repairs at its personal price and never taxpayer cash. Nevertheless, allegations of inflated venture prices and corruption proceed to persist.

‘Individuals’s rule’ vis-a-vis ‘household rule’

The Congress marketing campaign revolves round KCR’s inaccessibility, unilateral decision-making, and centralised governance model. It has promised to result in Prajala Palana (individuals’s rule) as a substitute of KCR’s Dorala Palana (feudal rule). The BJP, too, accuses the BRS of Parivarvaad (household rule).

In his normal model, KCR brushed apart the allegations, sustaining that the BRS can present a secure authorities, which the Congress can’t assure. BRS leaders have labelled the jibes in opposition to them hypocritical and level to the nepotism prevalent within the opposition camp. In line with a number of voters Frontline spoke to, in not less than 4 constituencies in Hyderabad, it’s not a sufficiently big concern to vote out the BRS.

The BRS stepped up its marketing campaign within the final two weeks earlier than the election. KCR made an aggressive marketing campaign in opposition to the election guarantees made by the Congress and questioned the feasibility of the Congress manifesto, claiming that its scope exceeded the State’s monetary functionality. He was additionally fast to level out the shortcomings in fulfilling the guarantees made by the Congress-led authorities in Karnataka.

The Congress’ six ensures embody the Mahalakshmi scheme for ladies (Rs.2,500 a month, gasoline cylinders for Rs.500 a month, and free journey in RTC buses); Rythu Bharosa (Rs.15,000 per acre to all farmers, together with tenant farmers, a gaggle beforehand excluded by the BRS); Gruha Jyothi (free electrical energy); Indiramma Indlu (home websites for the eligible); Yuva Vikasam (schemes for the youth); and Cheyutha (Rs.4,000 month-to-month pension for senior residents and an insurance coverage scheme).

Congress celebration supporters with a mock ATM machine named “Kaleshwaram ATM” at Gandhi Bhavan in Hyderabad to focus on the alleged corruption within the Kaleshwaram carry irrigation venture. 
| Photograph Credit score:
NAGARA GOPAL

However the Congress has a tough job at hand contemplating the mountain it has to climb when it comes to the vote share of the celebration and that of the BRS within the 2018 election. And there may be additionally the suggestions from the bottom. In Kalwakurthy constituency, Venkatamma, a tenant farmer who owns an acre of land, expressed combined sentiments. “Absolutely he [KCR] has not given me what I’ve been asking for [compensation for her husband’s death by suicide]. However he has supplied issues I didn’t ask for, like widow pension, and advantages underneath the Rythu Bandhu scheme. And, perhaps I may get Dalit Bandhu within the subsequent time period,” she mentioned.

The BRS received a shot within the arm with the Election Fee, on November 24, approving the disbursement of the Rythu Bandhu incentive (Rs.7,300 crore within the accounts of over 65 lakh farmers). The Congress had filed a grievance with the ECI citing the Mannequin Code of Conduct.

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The BRS has additionally benefited from Congress president and Malkajgiri MP A. Revanth Reddy’s assertions in interviews that three hours of energy provide is sufficient for Telangana farmers. At each public assembly known as Praja Ashirvada Sabha, KCR detailed the perils of taking that stance. He additionally focused the Congress’ announcement to scrap the Dharani portal (built-in land data administration system), saying that individuals who trusted it will lose advantages like Rythu Bandhu.

Battle of notion

Nevertheless, the Congress, by most accounts, could also be profitable the notion battle, and this has turn into the BRS’ largest reason behind fear. Revanth Reddy’s success since taking up as State Congress president in 2021 is in getting the Congress within the State to imagine in itself, and that has helped the celebration place itself because the main contender, displacing the BJP, in opposition to the BRS. Reddy joined the Congress in 2017 after leaving the Telugu Desam Occasion, and is amongst over half a dozen claimants to the chief ministerial put up if the celebration wins.

In line with the author and political analyst Telkapally Ravi, Revanth Reddy could also be an rising contender to energy in Telangana however wants extra time to match as much as KCR. Reddy shouldn’t be seen as somebody who would take everybody together with him. This was evident through the candidate choice, the place a number of suggestions by seniors had been reportedly put aside to favour his and strategist Sunil Kanugolu’s decisions.

In October, Ponnala Lakshmaiah, former president of the State Congress unit and veteran Backward Class chief, stop the celebration and joined the BRS, blaming Reddy for the humiliation meted out to him within the candidate choice course of. Senior leaders resembling N. Uttam Kumar Reddy and Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka have had restricted position in current campaigns. Observers say that a number of different seniors have been confined to their constituencies.

The Congress has seen a collection of defections since candidate choice. A number of Congress leaders from Adilabad district, together with the District Congress Committee president, resigned in protest in opposition to being sidelined in favour of Kandi Srinivas Reddy, an RSS supporter who had defected from the BJP to the Congress in Might this yr. One of many predominant considerations is how such defector-candidates will affect the Muslim vote.

Critics accuse all events of participating in opportunistic politics. The Congress, as an illustration, put aside its “one family-one ticket” precept, introduced within the Udaipur Declaration, to accommodate former BRS chief Mynampally Hanumanth Rao and his son.

Nevertheless, a number of components have boosted the Congress’ prospects. Veteran journalist and creator Ok. Ramachandra Murthy believes that the Congress’ aggressive campaigning of the previous two months has made a dent on the BRS’ credibility. The Congress additionally takes a part of the credit score within the formation of a separate State of Telangana. However voter response on this has been combined. The advance in Rahul Gandhi’s picture had additionally helped the celebration within the State, mentioned Murthy.

Civil society group

The Congress additionally has the assist of the civil society group Jaago Telangana, impressed by the Eddelu Karnataka (Wake Up Karnataka) motion. In addition to, political events that aren’t within the fray have come underneath the aegis of the Telangana State Democratic Discussion board (TSDF) to defeat the BJP and the BRS. Akunuri Murali, a former IAS officer who’s certainly one of its organisers, mentioned the TSDF’s bus yatra to create voter consciousness and sensitise them on the most important points, had coated over 50 constituencies the place its members addressed 40 conferences. They hope to cowl the remainder of the constituencies earlier than the campaigning ends. Murali instructed Frontline that their crew had observed loads of disconnect between the individuals and the BRS.

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Y.S. Sharmila of the YSR Telangana Occasion stepped out of the race to assist the Congress, a lot in opposition to her celebration’s disapproval. Whereas the Congress managed to maintain the Communist Occasion of India by its aspect by giving the Kothagudem seat to CPI State secretary Kunamaneni Sambasiva Rao, seat-sharing talks with the CPI(M) failed. The CPI(M), which is contesting in 19 seats, has a substantial vote share in not less than 10 pockets the place the Congress is a robust contender.

The Bahujan Samaj Occasion, led by former IPS officer R.S. Praveen Kumar, is contesting in 107 seats. Observers say the celebration has fielded pretty sturdy candidates in over 10 constituencies and can achieve between 10,000 and 15,000 votes.

BJP’s marketing campaign guarantees

After a interval of relative quiet, the BJP has returned to the marketing campaign path, however falls in need of making daring claims about coming to energy within the State. The Telangana BJP’s points haven’t significantly improved with the appointment of Union Minister G. Kishan Reddy instead of Bandi Sanjay Kumar as president of the State unit. Eatala Rajender, its head of election administration, nonetheless appears out of step.

The celebration has fielded 111 candidates; the remaining are from the JanaSena Occasion. The BJP did attempt to repose confidence in Rajender by fielding him from Gajwel (in opposition to KCR). Even a number of months in the past, the BJP proclaimed that the celebration would dethrone KCR. Finally, a few of their leaders have settled right into a extra pragmatic expectation of being a robust opposition.

After months of infighting and makes an attempt to assuage it with a management change, and subsequent dormancy, the BJP’s first important transfer was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement on October 1, instituting the Nationwide Turmeric Board. Telangana is the most important producer of turmeric, after Maharashtra, within the nation. Nevertheless, the celebration’s cadre had been disenchanted when the official gazette didn’t notify Nizamabad because the headquarters, as promised through the 2019 basic election.

Union Residence Minister Amit Shah throughout a roadshow at Serilingampally constituency in Ranga Reddy district on November 24.
| Photograph Credit score:
PTI

On October 4, the Union Cupboard additionally accepted the Sammakka Sarakka Central Tribal College in Mulugu. The college was a part of the dedication made by the Central authorities as a part of the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act, 2014, however confronted challenges in land allocation. The Prime Minister’s announcement of the college, named after a mother-daughter duo, Sammakka-Sarakka, revered by the tribal group, has not had an excellent affect as many imagine that it was lengthy overdue.

In the meantime, the BRS’ muted criticism of the BJP aided the hypothesis that the 2 events have come to a tacit understanding. The BJP introduced its remaining listing of contestants solely on November 10, giving it lower than three weeks for campaigning. The campaigns of the BRS and the Congress received underneath method months in the past.

The BJP, nonetheless, has tried to spice up its prospects with a mixture of welfare measures and job ensures in its manifesto: extra enter help to small and marginal farmers, fertilizer subsidy, 4 free cylinders a yr for ladies, and common recruitment for presidency jobs. Its unfulfilled guarantees, such because the reopening of the Nizam Sugar Manufacturing unit, have resurfaced within the manifesto. The celebration has additionally made one other obscure promise about turning Nizamabad into “Turmeric Metropolis”.

The BJP’s marketing campaign has turn into the stage for the standard communal tropes: abolishing the 4 per cent Muslim reservation in Telangana, and free visits to the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Its manifesto additionally guarantees to implement the Uniform Civil Code within the State.

The celebration has promised to put in an OBC Chief Minister if elected. On November 24, Modi initiated the method of forming a committee to research the long-pending demand for sub-categorisation of the Madiga group inside the Scheduled Castes. Political observers imagine that whereas it could not swing the election in its favour, the Madiga Reservation Porata Samithi’s assist for the BJP will dent the prospects of different events. Madigas outnumber Malas in a number of constituencies.

Political analysts imagine that the BJP will give a tricky battle in not less than 10 constituencies falling within the erstwhile Adilabad district, Karimnagar, and Nizamabad, and affect the ends in a fourth of the 119 seats. In southern Telangana, the BJP has a substantial presence within the erstwhile Mahabubnagar district.

The BRS continues to benefit from the assist of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). Talking to Frontline, its president Asaduddin Owaisi mentioned his persevering with assist to the BRS was to make sure that each nationwide events had been stored at bay. The celebration at the moment has seven MLAs (all in Hyderabad) and has fielded candidates in 9 constituencies.

The AIMIM has fielded Mohammed Rashed Farazuddin, a municipal corporator, in opposition to former MP and cricketer Mohammad Azharuddin of the Congress in Jubilee Hills. The Congress believes that is to assist Maganti Gopinath, the incumbent BRS MLA, by dividing Muslim votes. Given the Congress’ growing sway over Muslim voters, some analysts predict fewer seats for the AIMIM this time. However analysts and veteran journalists additionally imagine the state of affairs on the bottom might not match the hype surrounding the Congress. They are saying the BRS will nonetheless handle a snug majority or, at its worst, nonetheless scrape by to kind a authorities.