Excessive-stakes battles in 5 States to resolve Congress’ destiny forward of 2024

From the west to the north-east, from the centre to the south, the Congress is combating gritty battles in 5 State elections—Rajasthan, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana—that may make or break the celebration earlier than the nationwide contest in 2024. It’s in direct contest each in opposition to the BJP and robust regional events, and every end result will probably be imbued with its personal that means and significance.

For the sake of readability, we will divide the contests into these States the place the Congress is hoping for a pro-incumbency push, similar to Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and States the place it hopes to return to energy. The image is complicated in Chhattisgarh, opposite to the notion that it’s the most secure wager, and voting within the first part on November 7 that included the tribal areas was considerably beneath par for the Congress (20 of the State’s 90 seats voted).

Complicated situation in Chhattisgarh

The State might have been a showpiece for tribal rights and social justice, points near the acknowledged positions of Rahul Gandhi. It has a 32 per cent tribal inhabitants, however neither the BJP nor the Congress has ever had an Adivasi management, not like in Jharkhand. Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is from the backward courses as is Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. There are some questions on Baghel’s priorities because the Congress didn’t step in to guard Christian tribals from assaults and intimidation from Hindu right-wing outfits. It additionally delayed the implementation of the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, handed in 1996 and meant to offer decision-making powers to village councils in Adivasi areas. The federal government notified the foundations solely in 2022 and even then didn’t give full autonomy to tribal areas.

On the flip aspect, the BJP and the Sangh Parivar have much more regressive attitudes in direction of real empowerment of tribals, whom they appear to see solely as a captive viewers for Hindutva proselytisation. Whereas the Congress has additionally settled right into a gentle Hindutva mode, it has extra tangible positions concerning setting an excellent procurement value for paddy, balancing caste equations, and writing off farm loans.

Within the battle of perceptions, the Congress is forward as Baghel is the chief ministerial face whereas the BJP has none. Though three-term former Chief Minister Raman Singh is contesting, he’s as diminished as different BJP State leaders. Nationwide figures similar to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Residence Minister Amit Shah and Chief Ministers like Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma are campaigning in all of the election-bound States.

Additionally Learn | Chhattisgarh election: Spectacular turnout in first part amid tight safety

Second time period in Rajasthan?

In Rajasthan, the Congress might make historical past if it wins a second time period as that has not occurred since 1998. The fascinating subplot is Gehlot digging his heels in and insisting on operating the present his approach with out taking inputs from the nationwide celebration. He refused to vary candidates: within the phrases of a Congress stalwart, “in victory or defeat, Gehlot needs his individuals round him”. Gehlot additionally “despatched packing” the in-house election administration group the nationwide Congress has been utilizing for a while, most efficiently in Karnataka earlier this yr.

Gehlot has his personal advisor, the founding father of an organization referred to as DesignBoxed, who’s dealing with most features of his messaging and marketing campaign. Whereas Gehlot has the welfare schemes and guarantees in his favour, his hopes additionally come from the dearth of readability within the BJP about who will lead the State because it has boxed the viable Vasundhara Raje too into the “collective management” pantheon.

Priyanka Gandhi, seen right here addressing a gathering in Chitrakoot on 9 November, has created ripples in all 5 States.
| Photograph Credit score:
ANI

The equation in Madhya Pradesh

In some methods, it’s easier to only get the momentum proper when combating in opposition to ruling events. The BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh since November 2005 (aside from simply over a yr between 2018 and 2020). He would himself be shocked if he received a walkover despite the fact that the State has pockets the place the RSS cadre has performed intensive work for many years. In the meantime, the Congress is counting on veterans Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, each 76 and former Chief Ministers, who, regardless of reported variations over candidates, are hanging collectively.

Kamal Nath is the Chief Minister candidate and is combining gentle Hindutva with some arduous bargaining. There are rebels within the fray who the celebration will hope to comprise given the pure anti-incumbency they may harvest in the event that they handle the arithmetic. Right here too, tribal individuals make up round 21 per cent of the inhabitants, with Madhya Pradesh reporting 30 per cent of the atrocities in opposition to STs throughout India. Comparable problems with dispossession, poverty, and exploitation hyperlink the tribal individuals of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as soon as a part of the identical State.

Highlights

• The Congress is is combating gritty battles in Meeting elections in 5 States—Rajasthan, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana
• In every State, it’s in direct contest each in opposition to the BJP and robust regional events
• The outcomes of those elections could make or break the celebration forward of the Common elections in 2024

A distinct identification subject in Mizoram

A wholly totally different ST identification determines equations in Mizoram, the place the ruling Mizo Nationwide Entrance (MNF) is combating the upcoming Zoram Folks’s Motion. However the Congress, as soon as a drive right here, was the celebration the MNF defeated in 2018. The Mizoram marketing campaign is being dealt with for the Congress on the State degree with out consultants, however there are hopes that the horrible violence in neighbouring BJP-ruled Manipur will give them credibility and positive aspects.

Additionally Learn | Mizoram election: Excessive voter turnout units stage for shut contest

A miraculous marketing campaign

It’s in Telangana that the Congress is within the midst of a considerably miraculous marketing campaign that seems to have constructed the celebration up from the bottom in a matter of months. Inside assessments differ from a detailed contest with the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to an outright victory. There are fascinating sociopsychological inputs which have gone into shaping the marketing campaign. The rhetoric being utilized by the energetic Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) president A. Revanth Reddy and more and more by Rahul Gandhi calls on the individuals to vote in opposition to the dora palana (feudal rule by landlords) and select a praja palana (individuals’s rule).

In line with the Congress, sure BRS schemes similar to digitising land data have backfired with sections of the inhabitants, significantly the place lands got to SCs and STs. The Dalit Bandhu scheme provides a beneficiant Rs.10 lakh to chosen SC households to advertise entrepreneurship, however the Congress believes it has created resentment amongst those that don’t profit and there are costs of kickbacks as properly.

The Congress household, ranging from Sonia Gandhi who facilitated the creation of Telangana, is seen as an asset right here. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, at all times an efficient campaigner, has created ripples in all 5 States.

After the hurly-burly is completed, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge indicated that he’ll resume conversations with the constituents of the INDIA grouping, who’ve expressed anger in regards to the nationwide celebration’s preoccupation with the State elections. Whereas that’s the subsequent downside, what does come via is that the Congress is operating a marketing campaign the place native leaders have autonomy even because the celebration takes cues from political consultants. Issues might both click on or go very incorrect.

Saba Naqvi is a Delhi-based journalist and creator of 4 books, who writes on politics and identification points.