ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 situations – What are New Zealand semi-final possibilities trying like after three losses?

With 13 matches to go within the league stage of World Cup 2023, right here is how the groups stack up within the race to the semi-finals.

India
Performed: 6, Pts: 12, NRR: 1.405
Remaining matches: vs SL, SA, Neth

With 12 factors already within the bag and three video games nonetheless to come back, India are nearly by way of to the semi-finals. One other win will verify qualification, however even when they lose all three, Afghanistan must win their three remaining video games, whereas New Zealand and Australia must win two every. If these three groups have increased web run charges than India, then they, together with South Africa, can qualify forward of India.

South Africa
Performed: 7, Pts: 12, NRR: 2.290
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Afg

South Africa have as many factors as India however have performed one additional sport. Two extra factors will verify qualification, however even with 12, their distinctive NRR ought to maintain them secure.

Australia
Performed: 6, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.970
Remaining matches: vs Eng, Afg, Ban

After a gradual begin, Australia have come into their very own with 4 wins on the trot. Three extra wins will verify the qualification, however two can even do if a type of comes towards Afghanistan. Provided that additionally they play Bangladesh, who’re already out of the event, Australia are favourites to qualify.

New Zealand
Performed: 7, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.484
Remaining matches: vs Pak, SL

New Zealand gained 4 video games initially however misplaced their subsequent three matches. The massive loss to South Africa has additionally introduced their NRR crashing down, whereas the quite a few accidents are doing their possibilities no favours.

In the event that they win their final two and end on 12, New Zealand will nonetheless have a great opportunity of qualifying, however a defeat on Saturday towards Pakistan will put each the groups on eight factors every from as many video games, whereas a defeat by 84 or extra runs (in a chase of 301) will push them under Pakistan on NRR. Afghanistan will get to eight too in the event that they beat Netherlands on Friday, whereas Sri Lanka may additionally be within the combine.

All of this implies the subsequent ten days can be essential for all these groups. New Zealand’s final sport is towards Sri Lanka, and even when they win that one after dropping to Pakistan, it might nonetheless come all the way down to web run charges.

Afghanistan
Performed: 6, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.718
Remaining matches: vs Neth, Aus, SA

Afghanistan are the one staff apart from these within the high 4 that may nonetheless get to 12 factors. Nonetheless, two of their three remaining video games are towards Australia (in Mumbai) and South Africa (in Ahmedabad). Two wins in these three matches will maintain them within the combine if the highest 4 groups do not all get to 12 factors. A win on Friday towards Netherlands will take them degree with New Zealand on factors, however they can even have to win by a major margin to enhance their web run price, which is at present a poor -0.718.

One of many groups that would profit from New Zealand’s loss to South Africa is Pakistan•Related Press

Pakistan
Performed: 7, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.024
Remaining matches: vs NZ, Eng

New Zealand’s walloping by South Africa has opened up the factors desk, and one of many groups that would profit is Pakistan. They’re now just one win behind New Zealand, and a victory towards them on Saturday will imply each groups are degree on eight factors from eight video games. Pakistan’s final match can be at Eden Gardens towards bottom-of-the-table England. Relying on different outcomes, Pakistan’s qualification possibilities might hinge on that outcome.

If Pakistan lose on Saturday, their possibilities will dangle by a thread: Australia must lose all their matches and keep on eight, whereas different outcomes involving Afghanistan and Sri Lanka must go in Pakistan’s favour as nicely.

Sri Lanka
Performed: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -0.275
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Ban, NZ

If Sri Lanka win their three remaining video games, they may end on 10, however even then they may want different outcomes to go their method. A defeat towards India will imply they will find yourself with a most of eight factors. For them to nonetheless be in rivalry, a number of different outcomes must work of their favour, but it surely’s nonetheless doable for a number of as much as seven groups to complete on eight factors, preventing for 2 slots.

Netherlands
Performed: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -1.277
Remaining matches: vs Afg, Eng, Ind

Netherlands have the identical factors tally as Sri Lanka, however their NRR is far poorer. Wins in all their remaining video games will give them an opportunity, however eight factors is unlikely to chop it for them.

England
Performed: 6, Pts: 2, NRR: -1.652
Remaining matches: vs Aus, Neth, Pak

England might nonetheless end on eight factors in the event that they win their remaining video games, and be a part of the melee if a number of different outcomes align, however with a web run price that at present stands at -1.652, their finest wager can be to attempt to make it to the highest seven and qualify for Champions Trophy 2025.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats